Independent Poll Report On NPP Primaries

INTRODUCTION

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer race has taken a dramatic turn as the 2026 primaries approach. The latest survey conducted by the Future Governance Analytics Project (FGAP) reveals a significant shift in delegate support, with Dr. Bryan Acheampong surging past Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong to become the frontrunner. This report provides a detailed analysis of the FGAP findings, compares them with other independent polls, and explores the factors driving Acheampong’s rise while

OBJECTIVES OF THE POLL

This independent survey was conducted to scientifically measure delegate preferences ahead of the NPP’s 2026 flagbearer primaries. The objectives were to: 

1. Assess the current level of support for leading aspirants. 

2. Track changes in delegate preferences over time. 

3. Identify regional variations in support across Ghana’s 16 regions. 

4. Provide insights into the factors driving momentum for each candidate. 

Methodology

– Sample Size: 20,000 delegates. 

– Population: 210,000 national delegates. 

– Sampling Frame: Delegates drawn proportionally from all 16 regions. 

– Regional Distribution: Approximately 1,000 delegates per region. 

– Data Collection Period: December-January 2026. 

– Margin of Error: ±2% at a 95% confidence level. 

This methodology ensures a representative sample of the national delegate population, allowing for robust analysis of trends and candidate performance. 

Poll Results (January 2026)

| Aspirant                | April 2025 | June 2025 | Jan 2026 | Net Change |

|————————–|————|———–|———-|————|

| Dr. Bryan Acheampong | 12.7%      | 28.1%     | 42%  | +29.3 |

| Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia     | 43.9%      | 34.7%     | 32%  | -11.9     |

| Kennedy Ohene Agyapong   | 39.2%      | 31.4%     | 25%  | -14.2     |

| Kwabena Agyapong         | 1.7%       | 1.4%      | 1.9%     | +0.2      |

| Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum     | 1.9%       | 2.3%      | 2.6%     | +0.7      | 

Source: Independent Poll, January 2026 

Comparative Poll Analysis

Other independent surveys confirm Acheampong’s momentum: 

– Global InfoAnalytics (Jan 2026): Reported Acheampong recorded the strongest gains in the final days of delegate polling, pulling significant support away from Kennedy Agyapong. 

– OBM Consultancy / Ghanaian Chronicle : Found Acheampong’s support among delegates surging by 35%, reinforcing FGAP’s findings. 

– Academics & Professionals Poll (Oct 2025): Reported Acheampong increasing nationwide gains, even as other candidates plateaued. 

Together, these polls establish Acheampong as the biggest gainer across all surveys, consistently outperforming his rivals in terms of momentum. 

Candidate Profiles & Analysis

Bryan Acheampong (42%)

Acheampong’s rise is driven by a message of discipline, unity, and renewal. As a former Minister of Food and Agriculture and current MP for Abetifi, he is perceived as a leader who understands both government machinery and private enterprise. His coalition of support from MPs and grassroots activists has transformed him into the candidate with the strongest momentum. His youthful energy and direct communication style resonate with delegates seeking generational renewal. 

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (32%)

Once the dominant frontrunner, Bawumia’s support has steadily declined. His April 2025 base has fragmented, with many undecided or shifting to Acheampong. His challenge lies in re-energizing his campaign and reconnecting with delegates who feel fatigued by the status quo. Despite his experience as Vice President, his campaign has struggled to maintain its early dominance. 

Kennedy Agyapong (25%)

Kennedy’s grassroots appeal remains strong, but his decline shows Acheampong pulling directly from his support base. His fiery style has resonated in past contests, but sustaining momentum against Acheampong’s disciplined, structured campaign is proving difficult. His challenge is to consolidate his remaining supporters while countering Acheampong’s surge. 

Other Aspirants

Kwabena Agyapong and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum have recorded marginal increases but remain under the 3% threshold. Their limited traction suggests the race is consolidating around the three main contenders. 

Factors Driving Bryan Acheampong’s Surge

1. Strategic Messaging: Emphasis on party unity, discipline, and renewal resonates with delegates seeking stability. 

2. Grassroots Engagement: Effective mobilization of grassroots support, particularly in regions where rivals have lost ground. 

3. Endorsements: Public backing from sitting MPs and former heavyweights signals a growing coalition. 

4. Youthful Appeal: Firm-but-direct communication style appeals to delegates fatigued by entrenched rivalries. 

5. Momentum Effect: Consistent upward trajectory across multiple polls creates a perception of inevitability. 

Implications for the NPP Flagbearer Race

Acheampong’s surge introduces a new dynamic, transforming what was once a two-horse race into a contest led by a rising candidate. His ability to sustain momentum and cross the 50% threshold will determine whether he secures outright victory or faces a runoff. Bawumia and Kennedy must recalibrate their strategies to counter Acheampong’s dominance, while smaller aspirants remain unlikely to alter the race’s trajectory. 

Conclusion The independent January 2026 poll marks a turning point in the NPP flagbearer race. Bryan Acheampong’s surge past Bawumia and Kennedy positions him as the frontrunner, with consistent gains across multiple surveys confirming his momentum. His rise reflects a broader shift within the party toward discipline, unity, and generational renewal. As the primaries draw nearer, Acheampong’s campaign faces the critical task of consolidating support and crossing the 50% mark to secure victory. Analysts believe this is the closest NPP primary in recent times, with Acheampong’s trajectory redefining the contest.