Bawumia Beats Mahama in latest polls
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Vice President and flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is projected to win the 2024 presidential election due to his popularity among the Ghanaian populace. The Vice President’s popularity surpasses that of his main contender in the 2024 general election, John Dramani Mahama, and is also seen as more popular than both the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the NPP.
This projection comes from polls conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics, Research Design & Data Management Consultant, and Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University, Ghana. The polls found that Dr. Bawumia, as a presidential candidate, is preferred by 38.9% of Ghanaians across the country, compared to 34.5% who support the NPP, the party on whose ticket he is running.
However, the NDC as a political party is more popular (38.8%) across the country than its presidential candidate, Mr. John Dramani Mahama (36.1%). The research also found that in terms of appeal across the country, the NPP is likely to lead in seven regions while the NDC would lead in eight, with Western North becoming the deciding factor.
The NPP leads in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions, while the NDC leads in Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, and Volta regions. Despite the NDC leading in more regions, the population of voters in the regions where the NPP leads is likely to propel the party to victory.
The survey further found that all other presidential aspirants collectively garnered 3.6% in the polls, with about 21.4% of eligible voters yet to decide which presidential candidate they prefer. A significant number of prospective party supporters (23.1%) had not decided which party to support, with the Western region being the most undecided. The North East, Dr. Bawumia’s home region, is the most decided region with only 9.8% undecided party supporters.
The survey polled 59,547 respondents from all 16 regions of the country, with data collection lasting for 30 days, from April 1 to April 30, 2024. The majority of respondents were young people between the ages of 18 and 45.
In terms of what people would consider before voting, a majority (50.3%) of Ghanaian voters said they would be looking for a competent leader come December 2024, with about a quarter (22.5%) of voters considering the track records of presidential candidates as key in determining their vote. Party affiliation will be the main reason why 19.1% of Ghanaians will vote in December 2024, while religion and ethnicity may form the basis for 1.2% and 0.9% of voters, respectively.
The survey further found that some 3.7% of voters will await financial inducements to decide their vote, exposing vulnerabilities in the decision-making process of some voters.
In terms of policy and programs, the leading concern of Ghanaian voters is unemployment (21.1%), while about 33.7% are concerned about the economy of Ghana. Poor roads, water, and power crises represent critical concerns for 14.7%, 10.5%, and 8.3% of Ghanaians, respectively. Issues such as illegal mining, LGBTQ rights, corruption, and poor sanitation also featured as critical concerns among Ghanaian voters.